June 04, 2003
And If You Can't Make a Plan, Make Another Speech
- "What expertise there is consists largely of bad or uncertain advice and old, flawed, and confusing technical data.
- Arcane knowledge is always inadequate and fails to predict, detect, and properly characterize the threat.
- The more certain and deterministic an expert is at the start, the more wrong they turn out to be in practice.
- The attackers have no firm or predictable alliances, cooperate in nearly random ways, and can suddenly change method of attack and willingness to take risks.
- All efforts at planning a coherent strategy collapse in the face of tactical necessity and the need to deal with unexpected facts on the ground."
Given recent events in both of the worlds referenced in this article, I honestly can't decide whether I should be fascinated or deeply, deeply unsettled.
posted by whitey at 06:49 PM
